The longer US inflation persists above expectations, the less likely interest rate cuts become and the more likely recession becomes. This raises the stakes for commercial aviation, and increases pressure on airlines to shrink relative to GDP… Watch the full report. 

Airline unit costs are rising faster than unit revenues, reducing profitability and maintaining airline incentives to shrink relative to GDP. As higher YoY costs of fuel and labor kick in, look for capacity discipline (fewer aircraft, higher gauge, longer distances) and higher fares. Watch the full report. 

Inflation uncertain. Despite higher fares, airlines continue to be under pressure from all sides due to geopolitical and demographic trends. Watch the full report.